Morning Minute: Coinbase Posts Surprise Loss as Crypto Trading Dries Up

Morning Minute is a each day e-newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The evaluation and opinions expressed are his personal and don’t essentially mirror these of Decrypt.

GM!

Right now’s prime information:

Crypto majors are pink whereas shares grind larger; BTC -2% at $63.7k
BTC ETFs see $233M in internet inflows, 2nd greatest day since early Could
Coinbase posts shock loss in Q2 earnings; Technique books $8.2B loss
NY AG information petition to close down Kalshi, seeks $36B in damages
Coldcard exploit results in $38M in Bitcoin losses

📉 Coinbase Posts a Shock Loss as Buying and selling Dries Up

Coinbase reported $1.22 billion in second-quarter income on Thursday, down 14% from the prior quarter and 19% from a yr in the past, together with a internet lack of $359 million. COIN inventory fell roughly 5% after hours.

The miss was broad: income got here in beneath the $1.29 billion Wall Avenue anticipated, and the lack of $1.36 per share was far worse than the roughly break-even outcome analysts had modeled. Complete crypto spot buying and selling quantity fell greater than 20% from the prior quarter as costs slid and volatility hit multi-year lows, dragging transaction income down 21% to $599 million.

Subscription and companies income additionally missed, regardless of being the much less trading-dependent section of the enterprise. Coinbase blamed late-closing USDC industrial agreements and decrease staking income from falling costs, however the shortfall undercut the concept that the diversified companies are decoupled from the buying and selling cycle.

On the intense aspect, stablecoin income reached $292 million, with common USDC held on Coinbase merchandise hitting a report $20 billion, greater than 30% of all USDC in circulation. Prediction-market income greater than doubled quarter over quarter, up 106%, and crossed a $100 million annualized run charge. Coinbase’s share of worldwide crypto buying and selling quantity hit a report 10.3%, its third straight quarter of market-share positive aspects, and the corporate stated 88% of internet income now comes from sources apart from Bitcoin spot buying and selling, up from 45% in 2020. It additionally held $8.6 billion in money, prolonged a 14-quarter streak of constructive adjusted EBITDA, and lowered its full-year expense outlook.

Now that the outcomes are in, it’s attention-grabbing to take a look at Robinhood and Coinbase aspect by aspect. Each reported crypto buying and selling income shrinking and prediction markets surging, however Robinhood posted report revenue whereas Coinbase posted an outright loss. Coinbase is clearly way more uncovered to the buying and selling cycle it’s attempting to develop past, and it doesn’t but boast 13 9-figure product strains. As for Q3, steering is trying pretty comfortable. However that might not be accounting for Cobie taking up buying and selling and the apps. Let’s see how briskly he can get to work on turning the story round…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

Crypto majors are barely pink; BTC -2% at $63.7k; ETH -2% at $1,880; SOL -1% at $73.40; HYPE +3% at $54.90
High alt movers embrace UNI (+5%), PUMP (+5%) and ADA (+3%)
Oil +1% at $85; Gold +1% at $4,115
Inventory futures are inexperienced as tech shares and reminiscence go larger; DOW +0.5%, Nasdaq +1.2%
Technique booked an $8.2 billion Q2 loss as Bitcoin fell beneath its $75,476 value foundation, far worse than the $2.15 billion Wall Avenue anticipated, although it added 11% to its stack and stated its money reserve covers two-plus years of dividends
Cathie Wooden’s Ark Make investments bought BitMine whereas including to Coinbase and Circle, trimming about $4.4 million throughout BitMine, Robinhood, Block, and Bullish after their shares fell, whereas lately shopping for roughly $43.5 million of Coinbase and Circle
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to move the CLARITY Act, accusing Democrats of stalling for political causes and shutting his enchantment by quoting Satoshi Nakamoto: “When you don’t imagine me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to attempt to persuade you, sorry.”
The Bitcoin quantum risk inched nearer as IBM claimed a “trusted quantum benefit,” a milestone that renews urgency round hardening Bitcoin’s cryptography
Elon Musk’s xAI sued Minnesota to dam the US’s first AI nudification regulation, difficult it on free-speech grounds
Ondo Finance is weighing an acquisition price as much as $500 million, because the real-world-asset tokenization agency seems to be to increase via M&A

Company Treasuries & ETFs

Meme Coin Tracker

Meme leaders had been combined; DOGE -1%, SHIB even, PEPE -1%, PENGU +4%, TRUMP -2%, BONK -5%
Robinhood chain was led by FRONG (+600x) and IF (+74%)
Solana leaders included Moondogecoin (+300x) and KET (+60%); ANSEM +4% at $178M

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

The New York Lawyer Basic filed a petition to close down Kalshi in New York State over what it is calling an unlawful playing operation and seeks not less than $36B in damages
Pons went reside on Uniswap’s Launches aggregator, touting greater than 210,000 tokens launched in two weeks and over $283 million in quantity via Uniswap swimming pools, with a v2 approaching Uniswap v4 to bridge memecoins and RWAs on Robinhood Chain (PONS -12% to $28M)
A Coldcard key flaw drained $38 million in Bitcoin, with 594 BTC swept from about 500 wallets in 25 minutes after a construct error left seeds way more guessable than meant; maker Coinkite believes an attacker used AI to search out the bug in its open-source firmware, a evaluate its personal AI had missed weeks earlier