Key Takeaways
Polymarket’s CLARITY Act contract rebounded to 35% on July 17 from a record-low 24% on July 13.The market sat close to 74% in Might earlier than Democratic objections to Trump ethics guidelines sank the chances.Senate Republicans deliberate to launch the ultimate CLARITY Act textual content after a July 17 Trump assembly.
Expectations Are Rising
The rebound suggests the chances of the Readability Act passing into legislation this yr have jumped to 35% (down 7% from 42% simply hours earlier) with the transfer coming hours earlier than Senate Republicans deliberate to launch the invoice’s long-awaited remaining textual content following a White Home assembly with President Donald Trump.
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market the place merchants purchase and promote shares within the end result of real-world occasions, with costs reflecting the group’s implied likelihood. Its “Readability Act signed into legislation in 2026?” market has change into one of many most-watched gauges of the invoice’s fortunes in Washington.
In truth, the contract has traveled a brutal path as odds stood close to 74% in Might, when the Senate Banking Committee superior the Digital Asset Market Readability Act (H.R. 3633) in a bipartisan 15-9 vote. They then dropped to 48% in June as negotiations dragged, slid additional when lead negotiator Patrick Witt departed and Sen. Elizabeth Warren pushed for harder ethics guidelines, and briefly recovered above 50% round an early-July textual content push.
The underside fell out on July 13, when the chances sank to about 24% (the market’s lowest studying ever) whilst Trump pressed senators to approve the invoice with a warning that China might dominate crypto and synthetic intelligence if Washington stalls.
Friday’s bounce again to 35% tracks the information circulation. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) advised reporters the up to date textual content can be launched proper after the Trump assembly, quipping: “You guys have loads of studying to do.” Flooring motion is focused for the week of July 20.
The Votes Nonetheless Are Not There
The rebound components in momentum however nonetheless doesn’t sign a achieved deal as a result of the invoice wants 60 votes within the Senate, the place Republicans maintain 53 seats (that means no less than seven Democrats should cross over). Democratic negotiators, nevertheless, say the draft heading to the ground will not be one they agreed to, with Sen. Ruben Gallego calling its ethics provisions “very weak.” The dispute facilities on language addressing President Trump’s enterprise pursuits within the crypto trade.
Time is the opposite constraint, because the invoice already missed the July 4 signing goal the president had set, and the Senate leaves for its August recess on Aug. 8, a window many within the trade view because the final reasonable probability for passage this yr.
Wanting forward, a 35% – 42% likelihood nonetheless leans “no,” however it’s now not a collapse. In different phrases, merchants are successfully betting that the textual content launch restarts a stalled course of, whereas discounting the chances that seven Democrats signal on inside three weeks. Each headline between now and the recess (the textual content itself, a cloture vote, any Democratic defections) will probably transfer the quantity in an enormous approach.
