Key Takeaways
Arkham Intelligence launched Prediction Market Elo on June 29, 2026, rating Polymarket merchants by accuracy moderately than revenue or quantity.GardenerCx holds the highest Elo rating of 2389 with a 66.1% win charge throughout 2,512 resolved crypto markets on Polymarket.The Elo leaderboard is stay now beneath the Ranking tab at arkm.com/predictions/leaderboard, separate from the prevailing PnL rankings.
What Elo Measures
The brand new function, referred to as Prediction Market Elo, applies an Elo/MMR-style scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and aggressive gaming matchmaking. It ranks merchants based mostly on how persistently they predict appropriate outcomes, not on how a lot cash they transfer.
Arkham described the system at launch: “Some merchants persistently win on Polymarket, wager after wager. We’ve created prediction market efficiency scores (Elo) on Arkham Intel that can assist you discover them.”
Each appropriate prediction raises a dealer’s Elo rating relative to the broader dealer pool. Predictions made at decrease odds carry extra weight than these made at greater odds, since calling a longshot appropriately indicators extra edge. Guess measurement just isn’t factored in in any respect, which means a dealer with a small bankroll however a excessive hit charge can outrank a high- quantity whale working with decrease consistency.
Who Leads the Elo Board
The Arkham leaderboard’s Ranking tab exhibits “GardenerCx” holding the highest Elo rating of 2389 as of launch. The account focuses on short-term crypto up/down markets on Polymarket, buying and selling 5-minute worth course calls. Throughout 2,512 resolved markets, the account carries a 66.1% win charge and a 47% return on funding (ROI), with $51.4K in realized revenue on $110.7K in capital.
Arkham famous in its launch submit that GardenerCx “revolves round buying and selling crypto up/down 5-minute markets with unimaginable accuracy” with a win charge of 64.3% over 2,644 bets on the time of the announcement.
The second-ranked account, “roberto73,” focuses on soccer and FIFA World Cup markets, posting a 47.8% win charge throughout 2,835 markets with $177.8K in revenue and an Elo of 2254. Third-ranked “Oliveira39” covers sports activities together with soccer and basketball, with a 43.5% win charge over 1,817 markets and $50.1K in revenue.
The PnL vs. Elo Divide
The distinction between profit-based rankings and Elo standings is among the function’s clearest indicators. On the High Merchants tab filtered by 7-day efficiency, “blunttedge” leads with a 75% win charge throughout 1,027 trades and $8.3M in revenue. “1two1two” follows with an 83.3% win charge throughout 2,435 trades and $5.6M in PnL.
“Swisstony,” one of many platform’s most prolific bettors, ranks third on the PnL board with a 52.9% win charge throughout 261,298 trades and $3.4M in latest revenue. On the Elo board, the account holds a ranking of 1514, inserting it within the prime 7% of merchants however properly under the accuracy leaders. Arkham famous that regardless of his excessive sizing and PnL, “his trades are much less persistently worthwhile” in comparison with merchants who rating greater on pure forecasting accuracy.
The separation illustrates the system’s intent. PnL leaderboards could be pushed by place measurement and quantity. The Elo board surfaces merchants who get outcomes proper persistently, no matter how a lot capital they deploy.
Background and Entry
Arkham first launched a full Prediction Markets analytics suite in early Could 2026. That suite included PnL-based leaderboards, particular person dealer profiles with full place historical past and win charge graphs, real-time commerce feeds filterable by class, and deep integration with Arkham’s entity database, which incorporates greater than 3.5 billion deal with labels and over 800,000 verified entities.
The Elo function builds instantly on that basis as an accuracy layer sitting alongside current profit-based instruments.
What It Means for Merchants
Prediction market quantity on platforms together with Polymarket and Kalshi has grown steadily by way of 2026. Till now, leaderboard visibility has gone primarily to the biggest bettors and largest PnL names. The Elo system offers researchers and merchants a method to determine forecasters with documented talent, a cleaner sign for these trying to comply with or analyze constant edge moderately than uncooked revenue.
