The traditional knowledge says veteran holders don’t promote into weak point. They accumulate by drawdowns, harvest positive factors throughout euphoria, and in any other case sit nonetheless whereas newer cohorts churn.
Late 2025 is testing that mannequin. Throughout Ethereum, XRP, and pockets of the DeFi stack, dormant whales are transferring provide to exchanges as mid-term patrons flee, making a bifurcated distribution sample that reveals which property have real cost-basis depth and which stay top-heavy with latest entrants.
Distribution with out capitulation
What makes this second distinct shouldn’t be the very fact of promoting, as veterans at all times rotate, however the timing and composition.
Ethereum whales accrued 460,000 ETH as the worth slid beneath $3,200 in mid-November, but Santiment’s Age Consumed metric slowed moderately than spiked.
That divergence issues: if fewer very previous cash are transferring whereas combination whale balances rise, the strain comes from holders within the three-to-ten-year band trimming positions moderately than ICO-era wallets dumping.
Glassnode knowledge exhibits these mid-duration cohorts promoting roughly 45,000 ETH per day, a measured tempo that contrasts with the panic-driven spikes seen earlier within the yr when each short- and long-term holders exited concurrently.
XRP tells the other story. Dormant Circulation for the 365-day cohort spiked to its highest stage since July as whales transferred months-long holdings to Binance, reactivating provide that had been untouched by the prior rally.
CryptoQuant’s 100-day easy transferring common for the Whale-to-Change Circulate metric peaked on Nov. 6, signaling a multi-month uptrend and suggesting the distribution is structural moderately than episodic.
When mixed with dormant-supply reactivations throughout each one-year-plus and three-to-twelve-month bands, the sample is evident: XRP’s 2025 strikes systematically drew out older holders who had waited by consolidation and now see exits because the rational commerce.
Though the stream of whale exchanges has subsided, it stays among the many highest ranges noticed in 2025.
The trade-off embedded in these flows is simple. Ethereum’s whales are rotating, and older holders are promoting into energy as new patrons enter at increased value bases, constructing a rising realized cap ground whilst the worth consolidates.
XRP’s whales are distributing right into a market the place latecomers already maintain a lot of the realized cap at elevated costs, leaving no absorption cushion if spot demand continues to fade.
Realized cap because the structural inform
Realized cap measures the combination value foundation of all cash, weighted by the worth at which they final moved. For property that constructed real cost-basis ladders over a number of cycles, realized cap acts as long-term assist.
For property that printed most of their realized cap in a single blow-off, the construction is brittle: when the highest cohort sells, there’s little beneath.
Ethereum’s realized cap was $391 billion as of Nov. 18, in accordance with Santiment, absorbing distribution from older holders through recent inflows whilst worth chopped sideways.
That continued accumulation at different entry factors means the community retains cost-basis range, short-term holders sit extra uncovered if one other leg down materializes, however veteran cohorts trimming at $3,200 don’t collapse all the construction as a result of new individuals stuffed the hole at intermediate ranges.
XRP’s realized cap practically doubled from $30 billion to $64 billion throughout the late-2024 rally, with $30 billion of that coming from patrons who entered within the final six months.
By early 2025, cash youthful than 6 months accounted for 62.8% of realized cap, up from 23%, concentrating value foundation at cycle highs. Glassnode’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has trended downward since January, indicating that latest entrants at the moment are realizing losses moderately than positive factors.
When whales ship previous cash to exchanges in November, reactivating dormant provide at exactly the second latecomers flip underwater, the realized cap imbalance turns into the central vulnerability.
Dormancy as a number one indicator
Dormancy metrics observe when beforehand idle provide reenters energetic circulation. Spikes in these indicators don’t routinely sign tops, however moderately sign regime change.
When holders who weathered prior cycles determine circumstances warrant an exit, their motion usually precedes broader distribution as a result of they function on longer time horizons and bigger place sizes than retail cohorts.
Ethereum’s Age Consumed spikes in September and October got here from ICO-era wallets lastly transferring after years of inactivity, however these strikes occurred into energy moderately than panic.
By mid-November, as whales holding 1,000 to 100,000 ETH accrued over 1.6 million ETH, the Age Consumed metric quieted, which means the heavy flows had been pushed by massive holders rotating moderately than historic wallets capitulating.
That creates a ground: if the oldest cohorts aren’t promoting and mid-term whales are shopping for, spot absorption can deal with measured profit-taking from the three-to-ten-year band.
XRP’s dormancy sample broke the opposite approach. The 365-day Dormant Circulation hit ranges unseen since July, with repeated crimson spikes as previous cash awoke and moved to exchanges.
The reactivations grew to become extra frequent as the worth struggled to carry above $2, suggesting that holders who sat by the consolidation determined the risk-reward not justified their endurance.
When dormancy spikes coincide with weakening spot demand and a top-heavy realized cap, the sign is unambiguous: veterans are distributing right into a market that may’t soak up it with out breaking worth assist.
Who holds the bag
If Ethereum’s distribution continues on the present tempo, three-to-ten-year holders promoting 45,000 ETH day by day whereas whales accumulate and realized cap rises, the end result is a market with increased long-term assist however elevated short-term volatility.
New entrants at $3,000-$3,500 turn into the marginal sellers if worth breaks decrease, whereas veteran cohorts sit on unrealized positive factors massive sufficient to climate one other drawdown.
If XRP’s dormant-supply reactivations persist whereas the realized cap stays concentrated amongst holders with six-month-or-newer holdings, the trail narrows.
Every wave of veteran distribution pushes latest patrons additional underwater. As a result of these latest patrons account for almost all of realized cap, their capitulation would collapse the cost-basis ground moderately than merely take a look at it.
The danger is self-reinforcing: whales distribute, latecomers promote at losses, realized cap falls, and the subsequent cohort of holders faces a good weaker assist construction.
For protocols like Aave, the place dormancy knowledge stays sparse, a single deal with crystalizing $1.54 million in losses by promoting 15,396 AAVE right into a downtrend indicators pressured or fear-driven exits from latest entrants, not long-term holders harvesting positive factors.
When these losses occur whereas the asset trades beneath all main transferring averages and broader DeFi danger urge for food deteriorates, late-cycle capital is exiting moderately than rotating.
Who decides the ground
The central query is whether or not this cycle’s dormant provide reactivations characterize wholesome rotation, veteran holders exiting at income whereas new capital enters at increased bases, or the start of a broader deleveraging the place top-heavy realized caps collapse below sustained distribution.
Ethereum’s knowledge means that older cash are transferring. Nonetheless, the majority of latest stream comes from mid-term whales trimming moderately than historic wallets dumping, and rising realized cap confirms recent cash continues to common in.
XRP’s knowledge means that dormancy spikes are drawing out one-year-plus holders, whereas 62.8% of realized cap sits with patrons who entered within the final six months.
The end result will depend on which cohort blinks first. If latest entrants maintain and spot demand stabilizes, veteran distribution will get absorbed, and the market builds the next ground by turnover.
If latecomers capitulate earlier than veteran sellers exhaust themselves, realized cap falls, cost-basis depth evaporates, and the subsequent assist stage sits far beneath the present worth.
Whales are stirring. Whether or not that’s a rotation or a rout will depend on who’s left to catch what they’re promoting.
