Locked token holders have skilled a median drawdown of practically 50% for his or her locked positions in comparison with over-the-counter (OTC) valuations in Could 2024.
In accordance with information printed by STIX founder Taran Sabharwal on April 22, holders might have exited their positions at double the present spot costs the earlier yr.
Sabharwal shared information evaluating absolutely diluted valuation (FDV) estimates from Could 2024 in opposition to present FDVs as of April 2025 for main tokens, together with JITO, BERA, ZRO, WLD, TIA, IO, W, ZK, EIGEN, SCR, and BLAST.
Widespread devaluations throughout prime tokens
Among the many initiatives tracked, practically all confirmed appreciable valuation declines. SCR and BLAST recorded the biggest year-over-year drawdowns at -85% and -88%, respectively.
EIGEN adopted carefully with a -75% drop. Different tokens, resembling ZK (-64%), W (-50%), IO (-48%), and TIA (-44%), additionally posted substantial declines relative to their locked OTC valuations from the earlier yr.
Solely JITO posted a rise, with a +75% achieve relative to final yr’s valuations, standing out as an exception in an in any other case broadly unfavourable setting for locked token holders.
In accordance with Sabharwal, the disparity between OTC valuations and present spot costs highlights the dangers of investing in illiquid, locked positions throughout early-stage token rounds.
Whereas these early investments are sometimes structured with the expectation of long-term upside, market volatility and project-specific components over the previous 12 months have led to substantial underperformance relative to preliminary valuations.
In the identical interval, the 22 sectors within the crypto market, along with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), skilled a median correction of 40.7%, based mostly on Artemis information. That is practically 20% higher than the efficiency of locked tokens.
Implications for token markets and early buyers
The info means that many early-stage token buyers who dedicated to locked positions might have missed higher exit alternatives within the secondary market all through 2024.
Locked tokens sometimes include vesting schedules or switch restrictions, which forestall fast liquidity and expose holders to market shifts throughout the lock-up interval.
The info shared by Sabharwal additionally displays broader market circumstances affecting absolutely diluted valuations throughout the crypto sector. Newer initiatives face intensified strain in secondary markets in comparison with their preliminary fundraising rounds.
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