Bitcoin’s value motion has seen all of it: five-digit collapses, regulatory crackdowns, change implosions, and bear markets that lasted the higher a part of two years. By each a kind of occasions, one file has been unblemished: Bitcoin has by no means closed January, February, and March all within the pink inside the similar calendar yr. Not as soon as in its total buying and selling historical past. Nevertheless, with only some days left in March 2026, that untouched file is now on life assist.
The Numbers That Inform The Story
Bitcoin is heading into the ultimate stretch of March with a chance of three straight shedding opening months to a yr, a setup it has by no means beforehand recorded in its buying and selling historical past. The Coinglass month-to-month returns heatmap lays out the state of affairs with uncomfortable precision. January 2026 closed down 10.17%. February adopted with a 14.94% loss, which additionally created a file of the primary consecutive pink February after a 17.39% loss in 2025.
March is now susceptible to closing in destructive territory, with Bitcoin buying and selling round $67,750 on the time of writing in opposition to a month-open value of $66,970 following February’s shut. That places March’s month-to-date return at roughly 0.31%, with one buying and selling day remaining earlier than the month-to-month candle seals shut.
Bitcoin Month-to-month Returns (%). Supply: Coinglass
Cross-referencing the complete historic dataset, no yr in Bitcoin’s trackable value historical past (2013 to 2026) produced three consecutive pink month-to-month closes to open the yr. There have been years with brutal particular person months: January 2015 misplaced 33.05%, January 2018 dropped 25.41%, and February 2014 fell 31.03%. Nevertheless, in every case, at the very least one of many three opening months recovered to shut inexperienced, however 2026 has produced none of that reduction.
Potential Six Months Of Consecutive Losses
Bitcoin has been on a lengthy stretch of month-to-month pink closes because it reached its October 2025 all-time excessive above $126,000. This led to 5 consecutive pink closes in February 2025, which was the second time in its historical past. That file is now susceptible to extending to 6 month-to-month pink closes relying on how March ultimately performs out.
The situations behind this efficiency are a convergence of pressures that mounted steadily over the previous six months. Because it stands, investor sentiment on Bitcoin has corroded to multi-year lows, and it’s now at its lowest ranges because the 2022 bear market.
Because it stands, the complete Q1 2026 is at a pink efficiency of -22.6%. The Q1 2026 efficiency is the weakest opening quarter since 2018, when Bitcoin misplaced 50.7% of its worth between January and March. That yr’s first-quarter injury was extra extreme in absolute phrases, however February gained 0.47%.
On the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $67,750 with in the future left to put in writing the ultimate line of a chapter most buyers didn’t count on to see written firstly of the yr.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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