Analyst Weekly, March 23, 2026
Markets are more and more being pushed by a single power: vitality. As tensions within the Center East disrupt provide routes and push vitality costs increased, asset costs are transferring much less on fundamentals and extra on publicity to that shock.
On this atmosphere, not all areas will react equally. These tied to vitality imports are going through stress, whereas exporters, and extra broadly, commodity-linked markets, are beginning to behave in a different way.
Latin America: From excessive beta to macro lever
Latin America has traditionally been characterised as a higher-beta section of world equities. However to this point in 2026, it has behaved in a different way.
Whereas international equities wobble on geopolitics and fee uncertainty, Latam is quietly main rising markets, up round 7% year-to-date, supported by commodity publicity, enhancing coverage dynamics, and nonetheless undemanding valuations.
That shift isn’t coincidental. The present macro atmosphere is more and more being pushed by vitality dynamics and supply-side shocks, and Latin America is structurally positioned inside that pattern. The chance sits on the intersection of a near-term macro shock and a longer-term structural shift towards actual belongings.
Valuations: a supportive backdrop
From a valuation perspective, the area stays constructive.
Markets throughout LatAm have de-rated in latest weeks, with most international locations now buying and selling under their long-term common multiples, whereas earnings expectations have held comparatively regular.
In our view, this creates a extra balanced setup, the place,
Costs have adjusted
Earnings haven’t meaningfully deteriorated
Funding Takeaway: That mixture gives a level of valuation help, significantly relative to extra crowded international fairness markets.
Actual belongings are again in focus
On the core of the Latam story is its publicity to actual belongings.
The area is a key provider of:
Power (with a major share of world reserves and exports)
Industrial metals comparable to copper (Chile, Peru)
Strategic supplies like lithium and uncommon earths (Chile, Argentina, Brazil)
In a market formed by provide constraints and geopolitical fragmentation, these exposures have regained relevance. Importantly, Latam indices will not be impartial: vitality alone represents a significant share (round 9%) of the benchmark, permitting the area to translate commodity energy immediately into fairness efficiency.
Funding Takeaway: For retail buyers, this exhibits up throughout each indices and devices. Benchmarks like MSCI Latam and nation indices comparable to Brazil’s Bovespa or Mexico’s IPC mirror this commodity tilt. Entry might be gained by ETFs like iShares MSCI Brazil ($EWZ) and iShares Latin America 40 ($ILF), or through particular person names tied to the cycle.
Amongst these, large-cap exposures comparable to Petrobras, Vale, and Gerdau seize vitality and supplies, whereas corporations like Cemex provide leverage to infrastructure and development. On the similar time, extra domestically linked or cyclical names comparable to Embraer, Localiza, and LATAM Airways, mirror the restoration and progress facet of the story.
Brazil because the portfolio anchor
Inside Latin America, Brazil stands out with:
Direct leverage to commodities
A central financial institution transitioning towards easing
Continued overseas investor participation
This alignment between exterior tailwinds (commodities) and home coverage (fee cuts) is comparatively uncommon throughout rising markets.
Flows have remained comparatively resilient, significantly in Brazil, suggesting positioning is constructing however not but stretched.
Brazil additionally represents a broad cross-section of alternatives on the inventory stage. Current market volatility has led to pullbacks throughout a number of names, together with Embraer, JBS, Santander Brasil, XP, spanning industrials, client, healthcare, and financials.
For buyers, Brazil usually turns into the core allocation, accessed by ETFs or diversified publicity to those giant and mid-cap names.
Understanding the chance
Latin America stays a cyclical allocation, with two key sensitivities:
A stronger US greenback
A deterioration in international danger sentiment
Traditionally, the area underperforms in periods of USD energy, even when commodity dynamics stay supportive. A pointy reversal in oil costs or a sustained USD rally would doubtless weaken the relative case for the area.
From a portfolio perspective, this introduces a forex dimension to the commerce. Some buyers might select to go away FX publicity unhedged to seize potential upside from commodity-linked currencies, whereas others might partially hedge FX danger to isolate the fairness element and scale back volatility.
Funding takeaway
For buyers, Latin America is finest understood as a selective allocation inside a broader portfolio, fairly than a standalone name.
It could play a number of roles:
A diversifier away from US-heavy fairness publicity
A commodity-linked sleeve in a supply-driven macro atmosphere
A differentiated entry level into rising markets, with distinct drivers
Implementation can differ, from broad ETFs and large-cap equities to extra thematic exposures.
Defensive Positioning Dominates, however the Structural Story Is Advancing
The crypto market is in a transition section the place weak sentiment contrasts with a strengthening structural backdrop.
Positioning is clearly defensive. Concern & Greed sits at 27 (worry), whole market cap has pulled again to ~$2.44T, and volumes stay average, suggesting no aggressive dip-buying but. BTC dominance has risen to ~56.3%, reinforcing the thought of capital rotating into security whereas altcoins underperform.
ETF flows are additionally telling: weekly flows have are available broadly flat, pointing to a pause in institutional momentum fairly than lively accumulation. Mixed with retail risk-off habits, this explains the shortage of upside follow-through.
Beneath the floor, nevertheless, the structural story is advancing. The Readability Act is transferring towards a possible settlement within the U.S., with bipartisan help and lively negotiations between banks and crypto corporations, significantly round stablecoin yield.
Stablecoins are on the heart of this shift. Their rising position, particularly on Ethereum, highlights the place actual adoption is going on. Capital is beginning to differentiate between belongings with precise utility and people pushed purely by narrative.
The long-term thesis stays intact: integration into the monetary system, enlargement of stablecoins, and growing institutional involvement. The market isn’t totally pricing this but.
Technically, the setup is softer however nonetheless orderly. BTC shedding $70K opens a transfer towards $65K, with $55K as the important thing structural stage under. ETH wants to carry $2,000. These are reference zones that may decide whether or not this stays a managed correction or evolves right into a deeper transfer.
This communication is for info and schooling functions solely and shouldn’t be taken as funding recommendation, a private advice, or a suggestion of, or solicitation to purchase or promote, any monetary devices. This materials has been ready with out making an allowance for any specific recipient’s funding targets or monetary state of affairs and has not been ready in accordance with the authorized and regulatory necessities to advertise unbiased analysis. Any references to previous or future efficiency of a monetary instrument, index or a packaged funding product will not be, and shouldn’t be taken as, a dependable indicator of future outcomes. eToro makes no illustration and assumes no legal responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of the content material of this publication.
