From internet flows to perp funding, the metrics that specify this bull cycle higher than “quantity go up.” Bitcoin (BTC) worth actions are actually being pulled by off-chain flows and leverage, not simply by basic on-chain alerts.
Since January 2024, when US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, the variables that specify why BTC rips or dumps have quietly reshuffled. On-chain metrics now describe how tight the spring is, not whether or not somebody is pulling the set off.
The set off sits in ETF flows, perpetual swap funding, stablecoin liquidity, and macro shocks transmitted by way of institutional portfolios.
Listed below are the 5 alerts that really transfer BTC within the ETF period.
ETF internet flows turned the first incremental driver
A joint market overview by Gemini and Glassnode printed in February 2025 estimated that spot ETFs had gathered greater than 515,000 BTC, about 2.4 instances the quantity miners issued over the identical interval.
Moreover, a examine by Mieszko Mazur and Efstathios Polyzos discovered that capital flows into US spot ETFs are the only most vital consider predicting Bitcoin’s valuation, extra explanatory than conventional crypto variables.
The primary quarter of 2024 noticed roughly $12.1 billion in internet inflows into the brand new US spot ETFs, a interval that coincided with BTC breaking its prior all-time excessive.
In November 2025, internet redemptions totaled round $3.7 billion, the heaviest month-to-month outflows since launch, as BTC slid from above $126,000 to the high-$80,000s.
Glassnode’s November experiences body ETF circulate softness as a core purpose BTC slipped under key cost-basis bands, with spot order circulate “exceptionally delicate” to comparatively small incremental flows in a skinny market.
A $500 million IBIT outflow day is now as significant as any on-chain whale transfer.
Perp funding and futures foundation reveal the leverage cycle
Derivatives information from main venues like BitMEX, Binance, and Bybit present funding clustering round a impartial band on this cycle, with far fewer blow-off extremes than in 2017 or 2021. But, spikes nonetheless line up with native tops and liquidations.
Funding round 8% to 12% annualized is now in equilibrium. Spikes properly above that precede native tops, whereas profoundly unfavourable funding marks cycle lows and compelled unwinds.
A 2025 SSRN paper by Emre Inan discovered that BTC perpetual funding on Binance and Bybit exhibits predictability in funding charges somewhat than worth returns. Nonetheless, it helps forecast the following funding print, which provides information to examine for the following BTC transfer.
As ETF flows turned modestly unfavourable in November, Glassnode noticed falling futures open curiosity, cycle-low funding, and sharp repricing of draw back choices.
Value impulses now appear like a joint product of ETF flows and derivatives positioning. When ETF inflows surge however funding stays subdued, that’s sturdy demand.
When funding spikes to over 20% annualized whereas ETF flows stall, that’s leverage chasing momentum, and it unwinds quick.
Stablecoin liquidity stays the native rails
Stablecoin provide and trade balances nonetheless align neatly with BTC worth actions.
Bursts of stablecoin provide development and rising trade balances have traditionally preceded or accompanied main BTC rallies, whereas flat or unfavourable stablecoin development has front-run corrections.
CEX.IO’s January 2025 overview exhibits stablecoin provide grew about 59% in 2024 and reached roughly 1% of the US greenback cash provide, with switch quantity of $27.6 trillion that yr.
Durations of sturdy ETF inflows paired with increasing stablecoin provide ship the strongest rallies. When each go internet unfavourable, draw back strikes are sooner and deeper.
ETF flows are the entrance door for establishments, whereas stablecoins set how a lot marginal firepower crypto-native merchants can deliver to a transfer.
Holder regimes developed, not disappeared
Glassnode and Avenir’s June 2025 report notes that the share of BTC held by long-term holders reached historic highs into early 2025, tightening float, however {that a} rising “Scorching Capital Share” of short-term, price-sensitive provide to roughly 38% has made the market acutely reactive to new flows.
Moreover, Glassnode’s November experiences hyperlink latest worth motion to long-term holder (LTH) conduct: BTC slipping under key realized-price bands coincided with LTHs beginning to distribute into ETF and CEX demand, weakening assist.
21Shares argues that earlier than 2024, you would inform the story of Bitcoin cycles with on-chain cohort and cost-basis metrics alone. After ETFs, it’s good to mix these with ETF flows, derivatives, and macro.
Watching the place provide sits, LTH versus STH, in-profit bands, realized worth, is a strategy to perceive how elastic the tape is, then pair that with ETF and derivatives information to elucidate why the identical greenback of shopping for now strikes BTC kind of than earlier than.
World liquidity and actual yields transmit by way of ETFs
The ETF period has tightened Bitcoin’s hyperlink to macro liquidity and actual yields. Ainslie Wealth’s September 2025 evaluation finds BTC traditionally responds with a 5x to 9x beta to modifications in a composite international liquidity index, versus roughly 2x to 3x for gold and about 1x for equities.
A 2025 macro-finance paper concludes that Bitcoin confirmed rising sensitivity to interest-rate expectations and liquidity shocks, behaving extra like a high-beta macro asset.
Deutsche Financial institution analysts argue that the present drawdown is more durable to get better from as a result of BTC is now deeply embedded in institutional portfolios by way of ETFs, and people portfolios are being de-risked amid macro headwinds and better actual yields.
21Shares ties the autumn sell-off to tightening liquidity and fading rate-cut hopes, framing ETF flows because the transmission channel between macro and BTC.
Price-cut odds, greenback liquidity indices, and US real-yield strikes now present up nearly instantly in ETF flows, which then feed again into spot and derivatives.
The joint system determines route
The 5 alerts are gears in the identical machine.
ETF flows set the baseline institutional bid. Perp funding reveals whether or not that bid is being amplified or opposed by leverage. Stablecoin liquidity determines whether or not crypto-native merchants can soak up or front-run institutional flows. Holder regimes set the tape’s elasticity. Macro liquidity governs the provision and price of capital, which feed into all 4.
When all 5 align, BTC rips. After they misalign, BTC dumps.
The ETF period made Bitcoin extra like a standard danger asset with crypto-specific plumbing. If Bitcoin reaches $3 trillion in market cap, it is going to be as a result of all 5 alerts fired in the identical route.
