Bitwise predicts 50% odds of spot ETH ETF approval, $88k BTC by year end

Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen believes there’s a 50% probability that spot Ethereum ETFs will acquire approval within the coming months.

Rasmussen shared his insights on the chances throughout a Feb. 26 interview with Yahoo Finance. He mentioned:

“I actually don’t know if the market is essentially at some extent that the SEC wish to see as a way to approve these spot [Ethereum] ETFs this Could. I feel it’s a few 50/50 p.c probability that we’ll see approval or we’ll see rejection and kick it out to a different … spherical of purposes sooner or later.”

Different sources, together with Bitwise International Head of Analysis Matt Hougan, beforehand predicted near 50% odds that spot ETH ETFs will acquire approval in Could. In the meantime, the chances for approval are barely decrease on the Polymarket web site at 41%.

The SEC has to resolve on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF software by the Could 23 deadline and is predicted to resolve on the opposite purposes concurrently because it did with the spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Rasmussen additionally mentioned that the US SEC didn’t approve Bitcoin ETFs till Grayscale initiated a lawsuit regarding dismissing its software. He added that it’s unsure whether or not the same lawsuit may be mandatory for ETH ETFs.

Moreover, it’s unclear whether or not any applicant might file a lawsuit at this stage of the method.

Bitwise believes ETFs will drive costs upward

Bitwise doesn’t presently have a pending spot Ethereum ETF software however was certainly one of a number of candidates that gained approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

Rasmussen famous that Bitwise is “tremendously blissful” with the success of Bitcoin ETFs. He mentioned that the agency has seen $1 billion in property move into its personal Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and that the ETFs have collectively seen greater than $15 billion in asset move.

Rasmussen additionally predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs and different funds will drive up crypto costs as beforehand “sidelined” institutional buyers purchase in. He mentioned:

“When we now have that type of demand shock coming into the market, I feel it’s no shock that we’ve seen the worth of Bitcoin rise … I feel will probably be the identical for Ethereum or different property if there have been different ETFs to come back to markets.”

Rasmussen additionally described different occasions impacting the crypto market, together with Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun improve, NFT buying and selling volumes, and Solana’s worth progress.

He instructed that crypto is “rising from the ashes” of the weak 2022 market and is coming into a multi-year bull cycle. Rasmussen concluded by restating Bitwise’s earlier worth predictions and mentioned that the flagship crypto remains to be on observe to succeed in a brand new all-time excessive of no less than $88,000 by the top of 2024.