Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)
Howdy, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I shall be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I can even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.
That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have a terrific Christmas and a Completely happy New 12 months and I’ll see you in 2024.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $40,971
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we are able to see that value spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to think about is the potential of inside week failure, which might type if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. Provided that we offered off from final week’s open into the shut again beneath $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the probability of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we might count on final week’s excessive to get taken out out and value to possible proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nonetheless, value closes the week beneath $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I’d count on a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.
Dropping into the every day, we are able to see that every day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut beneath the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nonetheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we had been to now shut the every day via $40k, that appears rather more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the main degree beneath that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nevertheless, if we are able to proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I’d search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do suppose we proceed to push greater into $48k…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that value retraced all the positive factors of the prior weekly growth final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed assist at $2172. Worth depraved beneath the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as assist, with the pair closing again above $2172. Truthfully, that is very a lot giving combined indicators: we’ve got erasure of the earlier week’s positive factors following growth past yearly highs, however we’ve got a sweep of the weekly low into main assist too. Mainly, chop continues. What I’m taking a look at right here is the place we are able to proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I believe we’ve got the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nonetheless, we shut the week beneath $2137, I believe we’re more likely to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Trying on the every day, we are able to see how every day construction appears set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut beneath $2137, and if that’s confirmed we are able to count on $2036 to be examined later this week, however with rather more assist down round $1850. Nevertheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I believe shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that value continues to cut round between assist at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There’s little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both facet of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.
Casper Community:
CSPR/USD
Day by day:
CSPR/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.038 (92 satoshis)
Ideas: Provided that each pairs look just about an identical right here for CSPR, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at CSPR/USD, we are able to see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and beneath $0.055, apart from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this yr. We’ve got bullish construction right here on the every day however have offered off from prior assist up close to the high quality, with value now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as assist. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed assist at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I’d count on to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If this can be a challenge you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I’d take into account this pretty much as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here might be as tight at $0.031; closing beneath that may invalidate all of this latest construction and we’d possible return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Trying forward, the disbelief part is apparent – shut above $0.073 and I believe this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.
TriasLab:
TRIAS/USD
Day by day:
TRIAS/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, given how related these pairs look right here, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair, because the construction can be a little bit cleaner.
Taking a look at TRIAS/USD, we are able to see that value was in a protracted interval of growth off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation beneath $4.15, faking out above that degree as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA performing as assist and value then reclaiming the 200dMA as assist in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that degree and most lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking recent yearly highs via $5. Given this market construction, I’d completely not be fading this, as an alternative contemplating this possible the start of the following main leg greater for TRIAS. If we are able to now maintain above $4.15, I’d count on $6.40 to offer means and value to make its means in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the following native prime varieties.
Morpheus Community:
MNW/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MNW/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Worth: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MNW/USD on the weekly, we are able to see that value continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected beneath the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior assist ~$1.46. We’re at present discovering assist above $0.94, as has been the case since late final yr, however to be sincere this isn’t a very engaging long-term chart at current. We’ve got value discovering assist above the 200wMA in Nov final yr, then rallying to recent yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the positive factors again into the 200wMA after which rallying rather more weakly off that very same assist into the trendline. If that $0.94 assist goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at present your most vital degree. Till it will get a weekly shut via that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be sincere – a lot better alternatives available in the market.
Taking a look at MNW/BTC, we are able to see that the pair could be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with recent lows on the latest break and shut beneath 3264 satoshis. Worth is now sat in no man’s land, with main assist beneath close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 degree. There’s additionally no signal simply but of development exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), it will likely be some time but earlier than this one absolutely bottoms out; while most of its value capitulation seems to have occurred, we might must see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.
Cellframe:
CELL/USD
Day by day:
CELL/BTC
Day by day:
Worth: $0.19 (475 satoshis)
Ideas: Once more, very similar to a few different tokens on this put up, CELL’s pairs look very related right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can be what I’m basing my long-term place on.
So, taking a look at CELL/USD, we are able to see that value has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed assist above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we’ve got been consolidating above all-time lows and beneath $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not absolutely allotted I’d be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation can be recent all-time lows, the place I’d lower and watch for a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market circumstances I believe we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…
Altcoin Market Cap:
ALT/USD
Weekly:
ALT/BTC
Weekly:
Market Cap: $441.2bn
Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we are able to see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, lately rallying again via the 200wMA, consolidating above it as assist after which pushing via multi-year resistance at $413bn. We’ve got pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating inside the prior weekly vary. I’d count on to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there’s nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we are able to now maintain above that $400bn space, I’d count on the following squeeze to open up a much wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t any resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior assist close to $590bn – over 25% greater from right here. That’s the place I’d count on extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is changing into hope.
Taking a look at ALT/BTC, we are able to see that regardless of some positive factors in Greenback values of alts – and large positive factors on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we’ve got largely been trending decrease in opposition to BTC for over a yr. Most lately, alts depraved beneath assist at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with development exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we are able to reclaim 11.4mn as assist right here, I believe that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary assist up close to 13.3mn BTC.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate certainly one of 2023!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
