Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)
Howdy, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I will likely be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.
As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $39,449
Market Cap: $771.620bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that value is ready to shut the week at recent yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on comparable quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into help turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for larger costs, to be trustworthy – momentum nonetheless appears sturdy and we’ve simply closed by means of multi-week resistance. Taking a look at subsequent week, I’d anticipate this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there may be more likely to be way more resistance given the confluence. If we do see value push up into that stage, I will likely be trying to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge after we settle for above that stage. For draw back threat, any wick up above $39.6k in the direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to seem like a neighborhood prime to me, from which level we are able to begin in search of shorts probably again so far as $33k to filter all of those latest untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that prime formation within the subsequent week or two under $42k. Invalidation on any quick publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we seem like a prime has fashioned I’d not rush to fade the primary weekly shut by means of multi-week consolidation.
Turning to the every day, we are able to see how momentum had reset and is now curling larger once more as value has damaged by means of resistance at $38k and turned it into help on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, for my part. If we are able to maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I’d anticipate value to simply maintain pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nonetheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that may seem like the $42k stage is getting front-run and I’d grow to be much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction appears like this…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)
Market Cap: $260.285bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that value rallied off resistance turned help at $2037 – a stage which value had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, value discovered help at that stage and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This appears very very like the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance stage for ETH, notably after we take into account how $2037 additionally acted as very sturdy resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with value solely deviating above that after since Might 2022’s capitulation occasion. This sturdy push off that stage and break of recent yearly highs signifies a brand new vary growth, for my part, as I’ve been awaiting. If we are able to flip $2170 into help subsequent week I believe we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a recent yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that may look somewhat extra bearish and we might take into account {that a} deviation has fashioned. However till that occurs, this appears prepared for a brand new vary.
Taking a look at ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and under the 200wMA at 0.0557, however value is ready to shut proper round that resistance stage as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there may be little to do, however after we see value both shut by means of 0.0533 and switch that help into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into help, then we are able to take a look at the best way to play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former state of affairs, naturally we’d look to hedge lengthy publicity or open quick publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in the direction of multi-year trendline resistance, due to this fact outperforming for a interval. Easy.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.953bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value is discovering help above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally under the place the pair is ready to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but displaying any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to anticipate larger costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into help above $64, I believe we see one other leg larger into that vary between $75-82. If, nonetheless, we at any level shut the weekly under $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I’d anticipate $48 to be retested under because the final stage of help earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into doable in the direction of $36. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we are able to begin pushing by means of $64 I’d anticipate momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish state of affairs right here subsequent week can be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and a detailed again under $61; in that state of affairs, I’d search for intraweek shorts in the direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance by means of that stage, with $48 then the last word goal for that quick. Under $48, what occurs…
Turning to SOL/BTC, we are able to see how value is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We now have resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place value is at present sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% stage at 0.00208, the place there may be additionally prior help, for my part. So probably 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance offers means. If we’re topping out right here, nonetheless, subsequent week ought to see value shut again under 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested stage at 0.00112. If we drop into the every day, we are able to see how every day construction is popping bullish once more after the transient pullback however there may be resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I believe so long as the pair continues to type these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re more likely to see it give means and switch into reclaimed help; from there, I believe we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there will likely be way more resistance.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.547bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located help this previous week, rallying off that stage into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly stunning value didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls desires to see right here is that the pair type a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed help at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that stage weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we type that higher-low in that space. From there, we’d anticipate one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior help, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how value is definitely forming some first rate construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed help at $0.74, with every day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push larger. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other larger low kinds, I don’t suppose we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, value rallied by means of the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again under that stage and retracing now into reclaimed help at 2000 satoshis; a serious historic stage. If we are able to type a higher-low on this space, construction appears completely superb for continuation larger within the coming weeks. Nonetheless, shut again under 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi help coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I believe the subsequent leg takes the pair in the direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the every day, we are able to see how value faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing help maintain right here. If we are able to now reclaim 2100 as help, I’d anticipate to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the subsequent leg larger into 2950-3230.
Oasis Community:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $428.513mn
Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we are able to see that value continued to rally larger this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with value set to shut the week marginally under that stage. We’re wanting on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that stage, there may be zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get crammed in swiftly, notably following a multi-week consolidation under resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that top subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again under it, the image appears somewhat completely different. For now, this very a lot appears prepared for continuation larger, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.
Turning to ROSE/BTC, we are able to see that value is now above reclaimed help at 203, with solely prior help at 219 satoshis performing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we are able to shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I’d anticipate ROSE to push in the direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance by means of that stage opening up the primary main resistance stage at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, value has flipped vary resistance at 203 into help and is now holding that stage; shut again inside that and we’re more likely to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I believe we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there may be way more resistance.
Amp:
AMP/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
AMP/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $141.301mn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at AMP/USD, we are able to see that the pair just lately fashioned an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above help at $0.0018, now consolidating under prior help turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, notably when taking a look at momentum indicators, weekly construction remains to be bearish and the pair remains to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the interim. If we now see a higher-low type above $0.0018 and value then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic stage – then we are able to start thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to observe. If that does happen, I’d anticipate the pair to rally off that $0.003 stage as help quickly in the direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nonetheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and recent all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the every day, we are able to see that value is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as help, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 can even give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot larger likelihood, in my view.
Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having fully diminished and value now consolidating in a good vary round all-time lows. If it is a undertaking you are feeling assured in basically (it is a reader request, and due to this fact I can not touch upon fundamentals right here), this might be precisely the place I’d be trying to construct a spot place to be trustworthy, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Wanting on the every day, we’re tightly wound proper under the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very doubtless the cyclical backside has fashioned, so for these with much less threat urge for food, awaiting that may be clever.
Unibot:
UNIBOT/USD
Each day:
Worth: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)
Market Cap: $63.399mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s take a look at a undertaking I’ve just lately purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.
Taking a look at UNIBOT/USD, we are able to see the pair has solely been buying and selling for just a few months and value has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having fashioned an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a spread between help at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has endured since mid-September and while value tried a breakout just a few days in the past, this failed and we at the moment are retesting $64 as help; if this stage fails, I’d anticipate $51 to be retested as help, the place these on the sidelines might additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut under $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m trying to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating recent highs by means of $226. Into 2024 we go…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions under, or e mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
